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 War With Iran - Inevitable or Not? 
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Post Re: War With Iran - Inevitable or Not?
gomtuu77 wrote:
Do you think that the sanctions regime and negotiations will ultimately succeed, or do you think Israel and/or the United States will eventually end up in the midst of a military conflict involving Iran?

I have suggested many times that Iran's nuclear weapons program may actually be an entirely imaginary program, invented by the Bush Administration to justify attacking and/or ostracizing Iran. I do not believe this to be the case, but neither do I believe it is an unreasonable proposition, especially looking back on the false-flag/WMD conspiracy leading up to invading Iraq. In short, I continue to reserve judgment on the matter.

Obama's Secret Iran Talks: Setting the Stage for a Deal?

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The backroom talks began in June, when ... Iran sought the IAEA's help in buying more of the specially manufactured plates of enriched uranium used in the reactor ... The U.S. realized it could arrange for the manufacture of the specialized plates from ... the stash of low-enriched uranium Iran has produced in violation of U.N. Security Council demands.... The U.S. ... had estimated that the Iranian stockpile was enough ... to produce material for a single atom bomb. So, the idea that Iran might agree to send most of it abroad to be turned into harmless plates for the research reactor seemed an opportune way to defuse tensions.


Iran has made enough low-grade uranium that--with additional processing--they could make one atomic bomb. Obama has personally brokered a deal with Iran, Russia and France to let Iran use this uranium for peaceful purposes that help Iran ... what they've claimed all along to be the purpose of their program.

If Iran agrees to the deal, they lose the raw materials for their atomic bomb, and they get much-needed fuel for their research reactor. It also legitimizes their uranium-enrichment program, helps them restore face in the world, and effectively proves they are not trying to make nuclear weapons.

If Iran does not agree to the deal, it strongly suggests they have non-peaceful intentions for all that uranium they've been making.

Kudos to Obama for this. This is what you can get from talking to our adversaries. I will weigh my views of Iran's nuclear program heavily on the outcome of this deal. If Iran does not agree--regardless of the reasons given--I will consider this tacit admission that they want nuclear weapons.

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Tue Oct 20, 2009 11:07 am
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Post Re: War With Iran - Inevitable or Not?
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If Iran does not agree--regardless of the reasons given--I will consider this tacit admission that they want nuclear weapons.

And when this happens, how far are you willing to go to keep Iran from building a bomb?

North Korea strung along the Clinton and Bush administrations getting everything they wanted without giving up anything. Now, Iran is playing the same fiddle and the same tune.

Mutually assured destruction is the only thing that kept the Russians in check. It looks to me like we are headed there with Iran. Frightening because their true believes think they are doing the will of Allah and pushing the button may be the way to Paradise.

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Tue Oct 20, 2009 1:15 pm
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Post Re: War With Iran - Inevitable or Not?
rainbird wrote:
Kudos to Obama for this. This is what you can get from talking to our adversaries. I will weigh my views of Iran's nuclear program heavily on the outcome of this deal. If Iran does not agree--regardless of the reasons given--I will consider this tacit admission that they want nuclear weapons.

My concern is that in matters of diplomacy, the difference between Ghandi and Neville Chamberlain boils down to results.


Tue Oct 20, 2009 9:09 pm
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Post Re: War With Iran - Inevitable or Not?
NRamzi wrote:
rainbird wrote:
Kudos to Obama for this. This is what you can get from talking to our adversaries. I will weigh my views of Iran's nuclear program heavily on the outcome of this deal. If Iran does not agree--regardless of the reasons given--I will consider this tacit admission that they want nuclear weapons.

My concern is that in matters of diplomacy, the difference between Ghandi and Neville Chamberlain boils down to results.
Quite right, and I fear the results will likely be disastrous.

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Tue Oct 20, 2009 11:22 pm
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Post Re: War With Iran - Inevitable or Not?
gomtuu77 wrote:
Quite right, and I fear the results will likely be disastrous.

I wouldn't go that far. In practice, the worst that can happen is that this is a stalling tactic while they continue work on a weapon. Since diplomacy and economic inducements/sanctions are the only tools available, if they're that determined to have a weapon, they will have one either way.

My concern (and the point behind the analogy I used) is rather that Obama's image will flourish or suffer depending on Iran's actions. Regardless of how any of us feel about his politics, one thing I think we can all agree on is that we want our President to look effective on the international stage.


Wed Oct 21, 2009 5:26 am
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Post Re: War With Iran - Inevitable or Not?
NRamzi wrote:
Regardless of how any of us feel about his politics, one thing I think we can all agree on is that we want our President to look effective on the international stage.

I would like to know whether we agree on this.

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Wed Oct 21, 2009 5:33 am
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Post Re: War With Iran - Inevitable or Not?
spblat wrote:
NRamzi wrote:
Regardless of how any of us feel about his politics, one thing I think we can all agree on is that we want our President to look effective on the international stage.

I would like to know whether we agree on this.

I know the distinction is fuzzy at best--especially in politics--but I for one would prefer our President actually be effective. If he also appears effective, that's a perk.

ETA: This deal being organized by Obama represents a pretty concrete test of Iran's true intentions. That is already far more than the Bush Administration ever did re Iran.

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Wed Oct 21, 2009 7:17 am
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Post Re: War With Iran - Inevitable or Not?
It doesn't prove anything until they physically turn over the uranium ... however ...

Iran Agrees to Draft Nuclear Proposal

Quote:
Diplomats from Iran, the U.S., Russia and France agreed Wednesday to a draft proposal that would see Iran ship about 75 percent of its enriched uranium to Russia by the end of this year.

Each nation's government will still need to ratify the agreement individually by Friday, and it's unclear whether Iran's hard-line rulers intend to do so.

***

"The door is wide open for Iran. If they want this deal, all they have to do is say yes and there will be one," said International Atomic Energy Agency chief Mohammed ElBaradei.

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Wed Oct 21, 2009 1:48 pm
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Post Re: War With Iran - Inevitable or Not?
Meanwhile, back at the ranch ...

Israel's 'nuclear arsenal'

Quote:
While Israel is one of the loudest voices calling for a tougher line on Iran's nuclear programme, its own nuclear capability has never been put to inspection.... Israel hasn’t even signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.

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Mon Oct 26, 2009 6:01 am
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Post Re: War With Iran - Inevitable or Not?
rainbird wrote:
Meanwhile, back at the ranch ...

Israel's 'nuclear arsenal'

Quote:
While Israel is one of the loudest voices calling for a tougher line on Iran's nuclear programme, its own nuclear capability has never been put to inspection.... Israel hasn’t even signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.

Signing the NPT would be inconsistent with Israel's neurotic policy of refusing to acknowledge that they actually have nukes. I think the phrase they used was "plausible deniability" or some NewSpeak wordsmithing like that.

Their treatment of Mordechai Vanunu is telling: 11 1/2 years of strict solitary confinement and a lifetime of ongoing government harrassment. Yet as far as I know, the policy still stands today.


Mon Oct 26, 2009 7:24 am
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